88-380 Dynamic Decisions
9 units, Carnegie Mellon University
Decisions we make every day may range from simple to highly complex. For example, during driving we make many effortless and routine decisions judging the distance to the front car, the speed, the directions, while other decisions such as allocating limited time over multiple school projects in the presence of overwhelming distractions may be very complex. These and many of the decisions we make overtime are, however, very similar. The way humans make dynamic decisions depend on individualized experience, cognitive abilities, and their interaction with the particular conditions of the decision environment. In this course, students will understand how decisions are made from experience, in different dynamic situations how our cognitive processes e.g., attention, memory, risk tendencies, and other factors, and how the characteristics of the environments e.g., time constraints, workload, dynamic change influence the way those decisions are made. Students will use simulations of dynamic systems e.g., microworldsdecision games to understand how humans learn and adapt to changing conditions of choice. Students will also learn to construct causeeffects causal loop and stockandflow diagrams to represent dynamic systems, and to construct actionable models of those systems using VENSIMPLE. Students will learn the process of analyzing complex dynamic decision making problems by working on a semesterlong project. In a particular case of an accident or a disaster natural or manmade in a context e.g., aviation, management, social issues and others students will analyze the sources of error, construct causalloop diagrams, stock and flow diagrams and represent their models in VENSIMPLE to construct scenarios that help analyze the consequences of potential decisions in the case example. Students will learn to interpret simulation results to provide decision recommendations, in a final report.
Prerequisites: (85-211 or 85-213 or 85-241 or 85-102 or 88-230 or 88-120) and (36-200 or 36-201)
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